The war in Ukraine deserves Starmer’s full focus

The new PM is at risk of being distracted by the many issues he has inherited, but Europe’s safety must be his top priority

As the world witnesses the horror unfolding in Lebanon and Israel, we must not lose sight of the primary threat to the UK. It is not the situation in the Middle East, but what is happening on our doorstep, with Russia continuing the slaughter it began two and a half years ago. 
Yet, despite this, it seems Biden is intent on undermining President Zelensky by still not allowing missile strikes inside Russian territory. Reports that despite a one-on-one meeting yesterday, and the unlocking of more munitions for Kyiv, that the US President is still reluctant to do what Zelensky is asking for have been met with incredulity. 
This decision could force Zelensky into an unthinkable situation – negotiating with Putin while Ukraine remains in a fairly strong position. With the possibility of Trump, Putin’s potential American ally, reentering the political stage, Zelensky might get a better deal now than after November, when the dynamics could shift dramatically.
With British forces being deployed in Cyprus for a possible evacuation of citizens from Lebanon, it’s easy for politicians – who are notoriously distracted – to shift focus away from Ukraine. This is especially true for our new and inexperienced government, already gaining a reputation for missteps and misquotes. These blunders, though unintentional, do not go unnoticed by our adversaries, who will exploit any weaknesses.
Starmer must understand that even if war spreads to the Middle East, the UK does not have to be directly involved. But if war expands westward from Ukraine, it will almost certainly pull us into direct conflict with Russia. A premature “sham” peace with Russia now will only sow the seeds of greater threats to the UK in the future.
Morale within the Russian military is deteriorating, as shown in leaked Kremlin reports after the loss of Kursk, where hundreds of conscripts surrendered without a fight, and suicides on the front lines have surged. Reliable sources suggest that the mothers and wives of these conscripts are being arrested to silence them. Putin knows well the power of Russian mothers – those who forced the retreat of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in the 1980s after their sons returned in body bags.
Meanwhile, the Russian economy appears to be imploding. Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Russian Central Bank, raised interest rates from 18 per cent to 19 per cent, after previously warning that such a move would cool the economy excessively. For the first time, she publicly acknowledged the harmful effects of sanctions in a recent speech, a statement that surely infuriates the Kremlin. Even on Russia’s state-controlled nightly news, cracks are showing, with pundits questioning the government’s decisions.
As world leaders gather in New York, the future of Ukraine – and of Putin’s so-called “special military operation” – hangs in the balance. Decisions made this week, particularly by Biden, Zelensky, and Starmer, will likely determine whether Putin is defeated or appeased. The US remains focused on the Middle East and upcoming elections. This gives Starmer a rare opportunity to make a strategic political impact, or risk fading into the background and leaving Europe exposed to the return of war.
The new prime minister must resist pressure from the far left of his party to appease Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, as the UK’s involvement in that conflict will make little difference, and it’s not a fight we need to enter. Let’s not forget the disastrous consequences of Labour’s last foray into the Middle East in 2003, and the turmoil that followed. I was there for much of it, and it was not good. 
The only silver lining for me was working with the Peshmerga of Iraqi Kurdistan to defeat ISIS – using air power, intelligence, and weapons without committing ground troops. This is the approach we must take with Ukraine. Appeasing Putin now would cast a long shadow over Europe, allowing him to regroup and return stronger. If that happens, we’ll need to increase defence spending well beyond the current 2.2 per cent, perhaps exceeding 3 per cent, to safeguard against future threats.
The new PM is at risk of being distracted by the many issues he has inherited, but ensuring Ukraine’s victory should be his top priority. Our Storm Shadow missiles could deliver the decisive blow. If not, he might be remembered merely as the “son of a toolmaker who likes sausages”.